10 Things Will Change in Seafood in 2024! It Is About Many Farmers!

10 things will change in seafood in 2024! It is about many farmers!

A new round of global inflation cyclone, price reduction cycle continues, IUU yellow card is still not lifted, seafood exports will turn positive at the end of the year... It is a noteworthy market direction for the seafood export situation in 2024.

In 2023, high inflation, reduced demand, large stocks, falling export prices, as well as difficulties and deficiencies in domestic production and management in Vietnam, will cause seafood exports to fall by 17% compared to 2022, reaching only $9 billion.

The second is that the price trend of many seafood products is likely to continue until the end of the first half of 2024.

The third is: the US market demand is slow to recover, and Ecuador's cheap shrimp has an increasing trend. If countervailing duty (CVD) is imposed, shrimp exports will be more difficult.

Fourth, demand in the Chinese market is recovering strongly, but prices are low and competition is difficult.

Fifth, feed costs remain a major challenge for shrimp and basa fish farming.

Sixth, the shrimp industry continues to compete with Ecuador and India in terms of price and supply, and the shrimp oversupply situation is likely to continue into the first half of the year.

World shrimp production will increase by 4.8% to 5.9 million tonnes in 2024. Ecuador and India are increasing their market share in the United States, China, the European Union and Japan, while increasing exports of processed shrimp, although the increase is still modest at this point.

The seventh is: the stock of basa fish in the US, China and EU markets is no longer a problem, and the market export price will rise again. In addition to frozen fish fillets, the trend of importing high value-added basa fish and its by-products (fish maw, basa fish patties) continues to increase.

With regard to seafood products, the EU IUU yellow card remains a challenge, and if not addressed by 2024, the recognition and certification process for exploited seafood products will remain incomplete due to other factors, which will lead to the stagnation of exports to the EU. In addition, resources and infrastructure are insufficient. The tuna, basa and octopus industries are among the worst affected.

In addition, market demand is concentrated in cheaper product segments such as canned fish, raw fish for canned fish processing, dried fish and dried shrimp.

Ninth: China's move to ban Japanese seafood imports is likely to cause Japanese seafood factories to flock to Vietnam in search of processing partners, and this trend of "outsourcing" will increase because it can bypass regulations.

In addition, companies are likely to increase imports of raw materials for export production and increase processing for the Japanese and US markets.

VASEP predicts that Vietnamese seafood exports will gradually recover in 2024 and become more positive in the second half of the year.

VASEP expects seafood companies to help the industry's export sales recover to $9.5 billion to $10 billion this year as market conditions adapt and adjust. Among them, the shrimp industry is targeted at $4 billion, basa fish is about $1.9 billion, and the rest of the seafood products are expected to be about $3.6 to $3.8 billion.