Analysis Of China's Ocean-going Squid Price Index

1. Key Trends in the Squid Price Index

• Monthly Index Hits Record High (283.04 points, +7.72% MoM):

Persistent supply constraints and declining inventories drove prices upward.

Regional Variations:

Southeast Pacific (+9.51%) – Strongest growth due to El Niño impacts and IUU restrictions.

Indian Ocean (+6.90%) – Boosted by import substitution effects.

Southwest Atlantic (+2.67%) – Moderate gains from stable Argentine catches.

Northwest Pacific (-3.42%) – Declined due to subdued demand and competition from substitutes.

• Weekly Index Shows Accelerating Growth:

The index rose consistently, peaking at 288.81 points in the fourth week (+4.24% WoW).

Southeast Pacific surged late-month (339.33 points), while the Indian Ocean stabilized after early gains.

Northwest Pacific remained flat after an initial drop, reflecting weak demand.

2. Drivers Behind Regional Price Movements

(1) Northwest Pacific – Stability Amid Weak Demand

Supply: Stable catches; Japan's quota cuts (76%) not yet affecting short-term supply.

Demand: Processors preferred Southeast Pacific squid, limiting transactions to urgent restocking.

Cold chain improvements narrowed regional price gaps (<8%), preventing volatility.

(2) Southeast Pacific – Supply Crunch & Cost Pressures

El Niño reduced Peruvian catches, while IUU enforcement restricted landings.

Strong demand from China (post-holiday restocking) and rising FOB prices in Peru fueled gains.

Bullish shipowner sentiment led to a "higher prices, lower volumes" trend.

(3) Southwest Atlantic – Cyclical Fluctuations

Early-month rise: Argentine catches met strong Chinese demand for mid-sized squid (200-600g).

Late-month dip: Increased vessel arrivals and expectations of Falklands supply eased prices.

(4) Indian Ocean – Import Substitution Effect

China's squid imports fell 18.4% YoY, shifting demand to Indian Ocean sources.

Japan's quota policies indirectly raised NW Pacific prices, diverting buyers to Indian Ocean.

3. Price Outlook for Key Regions