China's Tilapia Supply May Show Signs Of Tightening in 2026
Dec 15, 2025
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From December 8-14, 2025, Chinese tilapia prices fell again. Industry insiders widely warn that raw fish supply may show signs of tightening by the second quarter of 2026.
The factory price of tilapia weighing 500-800 grams decreased by approximately US$0.03/kg compared to the previous week, while prices for the same size tilapia in Hainan and Guangxi remained unchanged.
Since the latest escalation of the US-China trade friction, Chinese tilapia prices have continued to decline. Although the US lowered tariffs on Chinese tilapia products from 55% to 45% in November, the market did not see a significant rebound, and weak demand dragged prices down to their lowest level of the year.
The prolonged low prices of raw fish have led many farmers to significantly reduce stocking levels in the second half of 2025. A large fish fry hatchery indicated that this reduction in stocking is expected to lead to a supply tightening in the second quarter of 2026. Orders for fish fry in the second half of the year in China have decreased significantly, and many farmers lack confidence. It is expected that supply will decrease moderately in the first half of 2026, with a more significant decline likely after June.