Driven By A Halved Quota And A Weak Yen, Mackerel Prices in Japan Triple Over Five Years

   Whether grilled with salt or simmered in miso, mackerel has long been a staple on the Japanese dining table. Since the beginning of this year (2026), however, the price of imported Atlantic mackerel has skyrocketed. Industry insiders in Japan lament that the cost has become so high that it is no longer an affordable, everyday option for the average consumer.

   As a global shortage of mackerel intensifies, major producing nations-including Norway-have tightened fishing restrictions. Simultaneously, the weakness of the Japanese yen has further inflated import costs. More than half of the mackerel consumed in Japan is Atlantic mackerel sourced from Norway. To manage fishery resources, the Norwegian government has been steadily reducing catch quotas. In 2025, Norway's quota stood at approximately 165,000 metric tons-a 28% decrease from the previous year. By 2026, this figure is expected to drop to roughly 79,000 metric tons, less than half of the 2025 level. Consequently, competition for the limited supply has intensified, with buyers from South Korea, Eastern Europe, and Africa also vying for the same resources. Because mackerel transactions are settled in U.S. dollars, the depreciation of the yen-which at one point fell to around 160 yen per dollar, a low not seen in over three decades-has further amplified the impact of rising global mackerel prices on Japan.

   Meanwhile, Japan's own catch of Pacific mackerel (*Scomber japonicus*) has also been on a downward trend in recent years. According to statistics from Japan's Fisheries Agency, the catch volume of mackerel has plummeted from approximately 370,000 tonnes in fiscal year 2020 (covering the fishing season from July 2020 to June 2021) to about 80,000 tonnes in fiscal year 2024-roughly one-fifth of the previous level. A representative from a major retail chain noted that the decline in domestic catches has driven up the price of Japanese-caught mackerel, while a sharp surge in the cost of imported mackerel has further exacerbated the upward pressure on prices. Consequently, major manufacturers raised the prices of canned mackerel this past June and July due to the increased cost of raw materials. The vast majority of canned mackerel sold in Japan is processed using fish caught domestically. Yasushi Miwa, a chief expert at the Japan Research Institute, pointed out: "Given the persistent weakness of the yen, seafood companies will likely find it increasingly difficult to continue procuring mackerel at such high prices."