El Niño Remains A Concern, With Continued Warming Expected Along The Peruvian Coast.

According to IFFO client member* data, the global supply of raw materials for fishmeal and fish oil production improved in August 2026; increased arrivals in several regions offset the continued weakness in others. August data showed a stronger monthly performance for global fishmeal and fish oil production. Year-to-date production is still offsetting the impact of Peru's extended fishing ban earlier this quarter: according to IFFO's survey of countries and regions covered by client member data*, global cumulative fishmeal production is down 45% year-on-year, and cumulative fish oil production is down 26%.

Chile, Spain, and the United States led the growth, with significantly higher arrivals than the same period last year, pushing August's total arrivals above the same period last year. The US fishing season ends in October.

Supplies from African fishmeal and fish oil producing countries and Iceland/North Atlantic decreased. Denmark/Norway remained largely flat compared to the same period last year.

Peru accounts for 20% of global fishmeal and fish oil production in a normal year, but August 2026 remains a major exception: arrivals remain low due to the continued closure of the fishing season in the central and northern regions. On September 15, the Peruvian Institute of Marine Research (Imarpe) began a new round of assessments of anchovy resources to determine the impact on the species. The study is scheduled to conclude on October 7.

"Marine feedstock supplies are projected to decrease in 2026, with fishmeal supplies falling below 4.6 million tons. This would be the lowest global fishmeal supply since 2016, when global supplies totaled 4.53 million tons. Mid-water and demersal species will contribute approximately 3.6 million tons of fishmeal, still lower than in previous years. Conversely, fishmeal from other species will see a slight increase year-on-year. Global fish oil supplies may also fall to 1.15 million tons this year. This would be the lowest global fish oil supply since 2016, when total fish oil production was estimated at approximately 1.13 million tons. Mid-water and demersal species will contribute approximately 605,000 tons of fish oil, still lower than in previous years. Conversely, fish oil from other species will continue to increase year-on-year, particularly thanks to salmon and basa. Actual catch activity in the final weeks of this year may lead to slightly different results from current assessments and forecasts," said Dr. Enrico Bachis, Director of Market Research at IFFO.

*This data is based on statistics shared by IFFO's customer members in Chile, Denmark, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, Ivory Coast, Mauritius, Norway, the United Kingdom, the United States, Peru, South Africa, and Spain; these customer members account for 40% of global fishmeal production and 50% of fish oil production.

In China, imported fishmeal stocks continued to decline at the end of September, well below average, while domestic production has been disappointing since the fishing moratorium began.