Mackerel Prices Have Broken Historical Highs And May See Another Surge in 2026

Entering 2026, the Norwegian mackerel market once again saw a price peak, with the average export price reaching a record high. According to the latest data from the Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC), although the average export price of frozen whole mackerel (under 600 grams) fell slightly by 1.4% in the first week of 2026 compared to the previous week, it remained at a high level, indicating strong market demand and continued tight supply.

The continued surge in mackerel prices is closely linked to quota reductions. In 2025, Norway's mackerel catch quota was 152,000 tons, a decrease of approximately 78,000 tons from the previous year. Furthermore, according to a new agreement reached between Norway, the UK, Iceland, and the Faroe Islands at the end of 2025, the catch quota for 2026 will be further reduced to 85,500 tons, a decrease of 44%. This means that mackerel supplies will continue to tighten this year, and exports may reach their lowest level in a decade. Data shows that exports in the first week of 2026 were only 461 tons, less than half of the same period last year.

In terms of price, the increase in mackerel prices can be described as "historic." NSC data shows that in 2025, Norway's total mackerel exports will reach 208,000 tons, a 34% decrease year-on-year, but the total export value will rise to a record high of 8.5 billion kronor. In other words, with a sharp decrease in supply, prices have driven the overall export value increase. Jan Eirik Johnsen, head of NSC's deep-sea fisheries department, pointed out that from 2004 to 2023, over a period of 19 years, the export price of whole frozen mackerel (under 600 grams) only rose from 10 kronor per kilogram to 20 kronor; while in 2025 alone, the price broke through the 30, 40, and 50 kronor thresholds. "Such a surge is unprecedented in the history of Norwegian mackerel," Johnsen said.

Despite high prices, market demand remains robust. NSC analysis suggests this is primarily due to the inelastic demand for mackerel in high-consumption markets like Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia. In 2025, South Korea, Vietnam, and Japan were Norway's top three export destinations for mackerel, accounting for nearly 60% of total exports. NSC points out that "the most liquid markets are still actively purchasing mackerel," especially companies focused on mackerel processing, which have virtually no alternatives. Meanwhile, mackerel fillet exports are growing rapidly-export volume is projected to increase by 53% year-on-year to 12,500 tons in 2025, with export value more than doubling to 413 million kronor, mainly supplying canneries in Europe.

However, this "high-price feast" has also triggered a chain reaction across the entire industry chain. Johan Kvalheim, NSC's representative in Japan, pointed out that Japanese processing plants are facing severe challenges: not only have raw material prices risen sharply, but import tariffs on whole mackerel are 7%, and on fillets, they are as high as 10%. In contrast, mackerel processed in Vietnam or China and then imported into Japan enjoys zero tariffs, leading to an increasing flow of Norwegian mackerel to Southeast Asian re-export markets. Kvalheim stated, "We are witnessing a restructuring of the industry chain, with companies forced to change traditional trade routes to reduce costs."

The NSC warns that the price increases in 2025 are just the beginning. Market competition is expected to intensify further due to another reduction in quotas in 2026. "Low quotas are making competition for raw materials more fierce, and prices still have room to rise," Johnsen noted. "The full impact on the market has not yet materialized, but industry pressures have already been transmitted to the global supply chain." He emphasized that mackerel prices this year may reach new highs amidst high volatility, and the response from the consumer side will be a key variable.

Meanwhile, the performance of the herring market is also attracting attention. In 2025, Norway exported 209,000 tons of herring, worth 4.2 billion kronor. Although the volume decreased by 8%, it still set a new record for export value. The NSC pointed out that the rise in herring prices was mainly driven by both quota reductions and increased demand. With a significant increase in the quota for spawning herring (NVG) in the spring of 2026, the industry expects herring to become the next growth highlight for Norwegian seafood exports.

Overall, mackerel is transforming from an "affordable fish" to a "high-end seafood." The soaring prices reflect both supply and demand imbalances and the complex interplay between strained marine resources and international fisheries negotiations. The NSC believes that mackerel prices are unlikely to decline significantly in the short term and may even continue to rise in the coming months. "We are entering a new phase-mackerel is no longer just a consumer fish, but a high-value, low-supply strategic seafood," Johnsen summarized.

Against the backdrop of global inflation and raw material shortages, the Norwegian mackerel market in 2026 is destined to remain turbulent.