Norwegian Mackerel Supply Collapses While Prices Remain Stable: Quotas Halved Coupled With New UK Regulations Suggest A Potential Demand Decline in 2026

At the start of 2026, the Norwegian mid-water fish market presented a stark contrast: on one hand, herring exports surged and prices fell due to high landing volumes; on the other hand, Norwegian mackerel exports plummeted, but prices rebounded to high levels. Behind this contrast, the core variable was not demand, but rather the direct impact of quota reductions and policy changes on the raw material supply.

Quotas Halved, Mackerel Exports Face "Inherent Shortage"

Data from the Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC) shows that Norway exported only 9,086 tons of mackerel in January, worth 478 million Norwegian kroner. Compared to the same period last year, export volume plummeted by 63%, and export value also decreased by 37%. South Korea, China, and the United States remained the top three markets in January, but given the "insufficient supply," the market rankings seem more like a result of existing stock allocation than a signal of increased supply.

The primary reason for the sharp drop in exports is that the 2026 mackerel quota will be reduced by as much as 53% compared to the previous year, directly compressing the annual catch and exportable resources. Jan Eirik Johnsen, head of mid-water fish at the NSC, stated bluntly that this will have a significant impact on the annual catch and exports-in other words, the mackerel market in 2026 is "locked in" to a tight supply situation from the very beginning.

The UK's new "70% Domestic Landing" rule further squeezes competition in raw materials

If quota reductions have shrunk the overall market size, then the new UK rule changes the flow of raw materials. The UK requires its vessels to land at least 70% of their mackerel catch domestically, meaning Norwegian companies face reduced competition in the raw material market. Johnsen points out that this will deprive Norwegian industries of opportunities to compete for raw materials and further impact Norway's export capacity.

With quotas already significantly reduced, any additional constraints on raw materials will be amplified: more cautious inventory turnover, stronger international pricing, and a greater likelihood of "disruptive fluctuations" in export schedules.

January arrivals hit a 36-year low, yet prices rebounded to above NOK 50/kg

The tight supply situation is evident from the arrival volumes. January's Norwegian mackerel arrivals were only 7,500 tons, described by the NSC as "the lowest January level in decades." Exports are also at historically low levels-lower January export volumes are not seen until 1990.

However, the "volume collapse" did not lead to a "price collapse." On the contrary, prices remain high: the price of whole frozen mackerel (under 600 grams) is 65% higher than in January 2025, although it has slightly decreased compared to December 2025; entering the fifth week (January 26th - February 1st), the average FOB price for this size rose by 4% week-on-week, and the prices of larger sizes (over 600 grams) are also strong.

In short: the mackerel market in 2026 is a "seller's market," not a "market recovery."

The greater risk lies downstream: High prices will push mackerel into "competition with substitutes"

What the industry should truly be wary of is the lagged impact of high prices on the consumer end. Johnsen judges that the global supply shortage has led to soaring prices, but the impact of this price increase has not yet been fully reflected in end-consumer spending; once retail and catering pass on the costs to shelf, consumption will decline significantly.

This presents two challenges for Norway's domestic supply chain:

* Short-term: Exports are limited, customers are paying high prices to secure supplies, but order stability may decline;

* Medium- to long-term: As mackerel prices reach a new high, they will increasingly compete with other fish species for protein, potentially permanently altering the consumption structure.

In contrast, the "increased volume and suppressed price" of herring seems more like a normal cycle.

The performance of herring during the same period perfectly reflects the "abnormality" of mackerel. In January, Norway exported 27,255 tons of herring, worth 574 million Norwegian kroner, representing year-on-year increases of 31% and 32% respectively; driven by quota increases and favorable fishing conditions, the amount of herring landed in January reached 121,000 tons. Against the backdrop of increased exports, the FOB price of whole frozen herring saw a significant decline in the fifth week. In comparison, herring's situation seems more like "normal fluctuations in a bumper year," while mackerel's is a "structural shortage shaped by both regulations and quotas."

The key words for Norwegian mackerel in 2026 are not "growth," but rather "scarcity, strong prices, and the risk of declining demand." For importers, the strategic focus will shift from "buying on rising prices to replenish inventory" to "controlling inventory cycles and the combination of substitutes." For the Norwegian industry, the real test is whether the market will still be willing to pay for it with real consumption when prices reach new heights.