The Middle East War Is Impacting The Global Fresh Fish Trade, The UAE May Face Supply Disruptions Within Five Days.

Following the military conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, the Middle East lost its role as an air and sea transport hub in a short period of time, impacting not only regional consumer markets but also directly disrupting the global seafood logistics system. Fresh fish products were among the hardest hit, and supply chain disruptions have begun to spread to Asian markets.

The impact on logistics is particularly severe. Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport, stated that the conflict wiped out almost 18% of global air freight capacity overnight. Data from flight tracking platform Flightradar24 shows that only 81 flights operated over the Gulf region on Saturday, compared to a normal level of approximately 19,000. Emirates Cargo suspended all flights, Qatar Airways Cargo grounded all operations, and FedEx suspended services in six Gulf states and Israel.

Shipping routes were also disrupted. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard issued a warning that no vessels were permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. By March 1, at least 200 ships were congested in the surrounding waters. Dubai's Jebel Ali port briefly suspended operations after a fire caused by falling debris. Major global shipping companies quickly adjusted their strategies: MSC suspended all bookings for the Middle East; Maersk halted its Red Sea route and detoured around the Cape of Good Hope; CMA CGM required vessels bound for the Gulf to "take shelter in place" and imposed an additional surcharge of $2,000 to $4,000 per container; Hapag-Lloyd added a $1,500 war risk surcharge. Several insurance companies announced they would cancel war risk coverage in the Gulf region starting March 5.

Fresh fish trade has become the most sensitive sector. The Gulf region is a major import market for high-value fresh fish, especially Atlantic salmon. Whole fish, headless and gutted products, and fillets from Norway and Scotland typically enter the Gulf countries via Dubai and Doha, with some goods then being transshipped to China and East Asian markets. With the shutdown of two major air hubs, there are signs of rising prices in the Chinese wholesale market.

Trade data shows that the Middle Eastern market has grown rapidly over the past decade. The UAE's salmon imports have more than tripled since 2012, reaching approximately 10,830 tons in 2025; Saudi Arabia's imports increased from approximately 590 tons to over 10,350 tons during the same period; and Israel's salmon imports reached $287 million in 2024. This region has become one of the world's major salmon export destinations.

An analysis by the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation indicates that under the current level of transport disruptions, the UAE's fresh fish inventory may only last about five days, placing it in the "critical" risk category. Frozen fish can last 40 to 50 days, and canned fish about 90 days. The fresh food supply chain is highly dependent on air freight; once disrupted, inventory is depleted extremely quickly.

European exporters have begun readjusting order flows. If salmon originally destined for the Gulf cannot be delivered, alternative markets need to be found quickly, potentially putting pressure on European spot prices. Logistics company DSV stated that even if airspace reopens, clearing backlogged cargo could take weeks, indicating a lag in supply chain recovery.

Analysts point out that this conflict not only affects immediate trade flows but may also exacerbate long-term uncertainty regarding shipping routes and trade arrangements. The Red Sea route, which was initially expected to resume large-scale container shipping by 2026, now faces renewed challenges.

The Middle East's dual role as a major consumer market and logistics hub is weakening. Disruptions to air and sea transport routes are putting significant pressure on the fresh fish trade in the short term. Price volatility and order rerouting are already evident, and future trends will depend on the duration of the conflict and the progress of the transportation system's recovery.