U.S. Tilapia Import Tariffs Will Be Imposed in February. How Will The Market Structure Change?

While the global tilapia farming volume is increasing year by year, the demand in the United States is getting weaker and weaker. Chinese tilapia exports to the United States are subject to a 25% tariff. After Trump takes office, a new round of tariffs may be imposed on February 1. Chinese exporters will face an even more unfavorable competitive environment.

At the "Global Seafood Market Conference" (GSMC) organized by the National Fisheries Institute (NFI), Urner Barry price analyst Angel Rubio pointed out: "Global production is rising, while U.S. consumption is getting less and less. The reasons are complicated, generally related to trade politics and various regulations."

70% of tilapia products imported into the United States are frozen fillets, 15% are chilled fillets, and the remainder are frozen and chilled whole fish.

Global tilapia production reaches 7 million tons, which is a very popular aquatic product among consumers around the world. However, political tensions between the United States and China have intensified, and tilapia tariffs will be further increased. Therefore, the demand for tilapia originating from China has decreased in the United States. Some countries are also stepping up their actions, Indonesia being the first.

Most of Indonesian tilapia is farmed in Sumatra, and production costs are high. Egypt and India also have great breeding potential. In addition, Vietnamese pangasius also has a tendency to further replace Chinese tilapia.

The continued rise in tilapia prices in China, combined with the possibility that Trump may impose a 25% tax increase on Chinese goods, will lead to a further decline in U.S. demand.

If tilapia prices continue to rise, or the U.S. imposes more tariffs, U.S. consumption will certainly be dampened. But the overall import situation will not be stifled and we will see opportunities for pangasius expand. However, pangasius production space is limited. Vietnam has an upper limit, and farmers can only produce so much at a time.

In the U.S. market, pangasius has continued to encroach on the tilapia market share in recent years. In 2024, the ratio between the two will be approximately 60:40. In 2025, more tilapia shares will be replaced by pangasius.