Atlantic Mackerel Prices Are Expected To Soar, And Prices in The Chinese Market Are Under Pressure

Affected by multiple factors such as quota reductions, tight inventory and exchange rate fluctuations, the price of Atlantic mackerel exported from Norway is expected to rise by 20% to 30% in the 2025-2026 fishing season, and may even exceed the historical high set in 2024. This round of price increases is expected to put significant pressure on major Asian import markets, especially the Chinese market, and the seafood supply chain and terminal pricing system will face readjustment.

Norway's supply is tightening, and the global supply chain faces challenges

At the industry forum held by the Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC) in Seoul on June 9, Norwegian mackerel processors generally expected prices to rise by 20%-30%. Norwegian local export companies also said that due to the tight supply of raw materials and the appreciation of the Norwegian krone, the processing and export links have been squeezed, making the increase in terminal quotations an inevitable trend.

On the supply side, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) has recommended in September 2024 that the total catch quota for Northeast Atlantic mackerel be reduced by 22% to 577,000 tons in 2025, and there is a possibility of further reduction in 2026. This means that the global circulation of mackerel will further shrink.

In addition, the raw material stocks of mackerel in major Asian processing countries including Vietnam and China are expected to be exhausted by October 2024, and there may be a short supply gap between the new and old fishing seasons.

China's demand is strong, facing upward cost pressure

In recent years, the Chinese market has become one of the fastest growing countries in the world for Atlantic mackerel consumption. Data shows that between 2020 and 2024, China's Atlantic mackerel consumption increased by 35% to 12,000 tons. Among them, pan-fried and ready-to-cook products are widely welcomed by young consumer groups, and the trend of convenient consumption is becoming more and more obvious.

Against the backdrop of continued growth in demand, a sharp rise in raw material prices will directly affect the procurement costs and profit margins of Chinese importers. Analysts pointed out that if prices continue to remain high in the future, related companies will have to ease cost pressure by adjusting product structure, raising terminal prices or exploring diversified raw material sources.

Asian markets react differently, and Japan and South Korea have divergent strategies

Similar to the Chinese market, South Korea and Japan also face challenges brought by rising mackerel prices. Due to local labor shortages, South Korea is accelerating the outsourcing of processing to lower-cost countries such as Vietnam, China and Indonesia. In 2024, South Korea's total imports of Norwegian mackerel fillets reached 8,500 tons, with frozen fillets and ready-to-eat products accounting for 55% and 10% of the market respectively.

The Japanese market is more high-end, with about 30%-35% of retail products in the form of boneless, salt-grilled or small-packaged cuts, mainly sold through convenience store channels to meet local consumer demand for delicate and light aquatic products.

High prices may become the norm, and we need to respond in advance

Based on information from multiple sources, the high price of Norwegian mackerel may continue throughout the 2025-2026 fishing season. For the Chinese market, under the dual pressure of tightening global supply and rising demand, maintaining price stability and supply security will become key issues in the industry.