Atlantic Mackerel Resources Continue To Deteriorate

The dispute over the management of mackerel resources in the Northeast Atlantic is attracting increasing attention from Asian companies. On June 5th, Japanese seafood giant Nippon Suit Corporation announced its membership in the North Atlantic Distant Fishing Initiative (NAPA), becoming the first major Japanese seafood company to join the organization. NAPA, comprised of nearly 60 companies and organizations, has long promoted a science-based framework for managing the catch of distant-water fish resources such as Northeast Atlantic mackerel, Atlantic-Scandinavian herring, and blue cod.

NAPA believes that Nippon Suit's joining sends a clear signal: the issue of Northeast Atlantic distant-water fish resources is no longer merely a quota dispute among European coastal countries, but a resource security issue affecting the global seafood supply chain. The organization states that Northeast Atlantic mackerel catches have long exceeded scientific recommendations, and the resource situation continues to deteriorate, having fallen to an "unsafe level."

This dispute has persisted for years. NAPA, established in 2020, aims to encourage relevant coastal states to set catch caps based on scientific recommendations and reach agreements on long-term quota allocations. Due to disagreements among countries regarding quota allocations, actual catches have repeatedly exceeded scientific recommendations. Atlantic mackerel and blue scad lost their Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) certification more than six years ago, and Atlantic-Scandinavian herring certification was subsequently suspended.

The impact on the Japanese market is deepening. Japan is one of the world's major consumers of Atlantic mackerel, and its domestic mackerel resources have declined significantly in recent years, leading importers, processors, and retailers to increase their reliance on Northeast Atlantic mackerel. NAPA states that Japan's domestic blue mackerel resources have decreased significantly due to factors such as rising sea temperatures, prompting Japanese companies to turn to Northeast Atlantic mackerel to fill the supply gap.

The Japanese Fisheries Agency has significantly reduced its domestic allowable catch quota for Pacific mackerel. From July 2025 to June 2026, the total allowable catch of Pacific mackerel in Japan has been set at 109,000 tons, covering white-bellied mackerel and blue-spotted mackerel, a decrease of 69.1% compared to the previous year. With the reduction in domestic supply, the importance of imported mackerel in Japan's processing and retail system continues to rise.

Tightening supply is already reflected in prices. The FOB price of Norwegian mackerel weighing under 600 grams rose from approximately $2.00-2.20/kg in early 2023 to over $5/kg last autumn, setting a record. Prices have remained above historical levels since then. Recent negotiations for the new season's Norwegian mackerel have focused on $5.00-6.30/kg, a price level that Japanese buyers generally consider difficult to absorb.

The high prices are not simply a short-term phenomenon. Shortcomings in Northeast Atlantic mackerel resource management, the lack of MSC certification, declining domestic mackerel supply, and increased reliance on imports are all contributing to increased pressure on Japan's procurement system. For Japanese processing companies, mackerel is both a popular consumer fish and a crucial raw material for frozen products and prepared foods; for retail and catering channels, persistently high prices will impact promotional opportunities and end-consumer demand.

Nikkei stated that the Northeast Atlantic deep-sea fish resources are of great importance to the global seafood supply chain, and Atlantic mackerel is a key species in the Japanese market. The company indicated that it will collaborate with European and Japanese conglomerates through NAPA to promote the sustainable use of Northeast Atlantic deep-sea fish resources and participate in improving fisheries management frameworks.

NAPA Executive Director Aoife Martin stated that the seafood supply chain plays a crucial role in helping governments resolve international resource management disputes. With Nikkei's participation, Japanese companies' involvement in Northeast Atlantic resource issues has significantly increased. NAPA also noted that blue cod is not only a consumer seafood product but also a vital ingredient in Atlantic salmon feed fishmeal, and the outcome of related resource management will affect the broader aquaculture supply chain.

With the deterioration of Atlantic mackerel resources, the suspension of MSC certification, and the simultaneous high prices of Norwegian mackerel, Japanese buyers face more than just rising procurement costs. Whether a resource management agreement can be reached, whether scientific fishing recommendations can be implemented, and whether certification can be reinstated will directly impact the stability of Japanese mackerel processing, retail, and import supplies.