Mackerel Quota Cuts Send Prices Soaring in Japan
Oct 07, 2025
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Prices soar to record highs
The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) recently recommended a 70% cut in the total Northeast Atlantic mackerel catch quota for 2026, shocking the Japanese industry with this unprecedented reduction.
Industry insiders revealed that the proposed reduction far exceeded expectations. A Tokyo importer said, "I thought a 20%-30% cut would be the limit, but I didn't expect a 70% cut. This is practically equivalent to a fishing ban, and the Japanese market could collapse completely."
In fact, even before the ICES recommendation, Japanese importers were already in the grip of a "price crisis." Norway's 2025 quota was reduced by 22% compared to the previous year, depleting inventories and nearly exhausting raw materials from processing centers like China and Vietnam. This has led exporters to raise their prices continuously since August.
Supply has plummeted to one-third of previous years
Data shows that Japan has imported an average of approximately 150,000 tons of mackerel annually in recent years, of which 50,000-60,000 tons are direct imports, another 40,000-50,000 tons are processed in China and resold to Japan, approximately 30,000 tons are shipped through Vietnam, and 10,000-20,000 tons come from Thailand.
However, as of the end of September 2025, Japan's actual purchases were only approximately 40,000 tons, of which only 14,000 tons were direct imports (including a small amount of old stock) and approximately 30,000 tons were shipped through China and Vietnam, far below previous levels. Industry insiders pessimistically predict that overall imports this year may be only one-third of previous years.