North Atlantic Mackerel Quotas Face A Precipitous Cut, Prompting Retail Giants To Turn To Alternatives

A scientific recommendation has sounded the alarm for the world's most important high seas fish trade. On September 30, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) issued a statement recommending that the 2026 allowable catch of Northeast Atlantic mackerel should not exceed 174,000 tons. This figure represents a drastic drop of approximately 70% compared to the 2025 scientific recommendation of 577,000 tons, and a staggering 77% lower than the total quota of 760,000 tons set by coastal countries this year.

"The red flags are flashing," commented the Norwegian Institute of Marine Research. Are Salthaug, a population researcher at the institute, noted that the population decline follows a clear downward curve, shrinking from nearly 13 million tons of spawning stocks in 2014 to 2.7 million tons today, significantly below the "critical viability" threshold of 3 million tons. Research director Geir Huse emphasized, "The situation is very serious. Reversing the trend now is crucial, and this requires significant reductions in fishing intensity."

The report clearly points out that due to the years-long inability of Northeast Atlantic coastal countries (including the EU, the UK, Norway, and Iceland) to reach a long-term agreement on quota allocation, the total catch levels set by each party have consistently significantly exceeded the ICES scientific recommendations, leading to a "tragedy of the commons." Meanwhile, mackerel has suffered from years of low juvenile recruitment, severely weakening the population's ability to recover.

On the same day the scientific recommendations were released, market mechanisms were already in play. British canned food giant Princes Group announced that it would stop sourcing Northeast Atlantic mackerel from all its mackerel products and instead use Chilean horse mackerel, certified sustainable by the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC). The new product will be available in major UK supermarkets in October.

David McDiarmid, Prines' Director of Corporate Relations, offered a representative statement: "We have long called on coastal countries to set quotas based on science, but to date, insufficient progress has been made." George Clark, MSC's UK and Ireland Program Director, interpreted this move as "sending a clear signal to the market" that certified sustainable options are needed in the supply chain.

Since losing its MSC certification, Northeast Atlantic mackerel's market position will be further damaged. Retailers and brands are demanding traceability and sustainability in the supply chain. When the North Atlantic, a traditionally key production area, faces a supply crisis, MSC-certified alternative species (such as Chilean horse mackerel) and emerging production areas (such as the South Pacific) will have unprecedented market opportunities.

For major importing and processing countries like China, this quota proposal requires close attention to the price fluctuations and changes in trade flows brought about by this incident.