Norwegian Mackerel: New Season Opens With Tentative $5.50 Quote

   Norwegian mackerel exporters have begun testing opening prices for the 2026 season with Asian buyers. Informal price discussions are centering around $5.50/kg CFR Asia-roughly on par with the $5.50–$5.60 quotes for remaining stock from the 2025 season-though some producers are testing the waters for prices above $5.60. No consensus on the opening price has yet emerged. Japanese and South Korean importers currently in Norway report not having received formal quotes, as exporters repeatedly ask them to wait.

   Norway's large-scale purse seine fleet has entered the 2026 Atlantic mackerel season, operating primarily in Norwegian waters; catches consist mainly of large fish averaging 520–540 grams, a pattern similar to the previous season. Less than a week into the season, drastic quota cuts have made exporters reluctant to set formal prices until catch volumes and demand trends become clearer. Multiple sources indicate that exporters are exercising extreme caution regarding opening prices due to limited sellable volume. Some producers face no immediate pressure on cold storage capacity, allowing them to delay converting tentative figures into formal offers. A Tokyo-based importer noted that while catches have been sporadic so far-making it difficult to assess the season as a whole-price signals are far higher than anticipated. During the Shanghai World Seafood Expo, a representative from a Chinese mackerel processing firm also suggested that, with cold storage not yet full, some manufacturers might observe the market for a while longer before making considered bids.

   An opening price of $5.50/kg would break with convention; new-season mackerel typically opens at a lower price point than the previous season's stock, rising gradually as the season progresses. In the last season, Norwegian mackerel opened at approximately $4.00/kg, only reaching $5.50 toward the end of the sales cycle. A Japanese importer stated bluntly that $5.50 is too high for an initial quote, noting that if the season starts at that level, it is hard not to worry about how high prices might climb later on. At current exchange rates, a CFR price of $5.50/kg translates to a domestic selling price of nearly ¥1,000/kg for Japanese importers. Previously, importers largely avoided purchasing fish from the previous season at this price point because consumption was already declining, making it impossible to pass rising raw material costs on to supermarkets selling fish fillets; prices for whole frozen Norwegian mackerel (400–600g) in Japanese wholesale markets-as well as selling prices for boneless fillets processed in China and Vietnam-have failed to keep pace with the surge in raw material costs. Japanese importers have shifted some of their retail proposals toward products based on domestic raw materials, anticipating difficulties in securing their usual Norwegian supplies at profitable price points.

   Buyers are in no rush to make a move, either. Buyers in Japan, South Korea, and China still hold inventories of raw materials or finished products, and sales of mackerel products across retail and foodservice channels remain suppressed by weak demand; consequently, East Asian buyers face no immediate pressure to lock in supplies from the new season, and both sides are currently in a "wait-and-see" mode.