Wholesale Prices Of Frozen Tilapia in The US Have Risen Across All Sizes, Reflecting The Impact Of Tightening Raw Material Supplies in China

Wholesale prices of frozen tilapia from China have increased across the board in the US market. Industry weekly reports indicate that prices for all sizes of both types of frozen fish fillets from China have risen. While the increases are moderate, they break the flat-to-weak pattern seen since the beginning of the year, representing the most significant shift in direction since the price decline at the start of the year.

For the previous six months, the US market was largely unaffected by the tightening supply of raw materials from China. Ample inventory, cautious demand, and fierce competition among suppliers left buyers with no reason to chase higher prices and replenish their stocks. Even though Chinese fish farmers had experienced a prolonged period of low profits, upstream pressure finally began to outweigh this obstacle.

Raw material prices in Chinese production areas remained stable, ending several weeks of consecutive increases. However, this pause does not indicate an improvement in supply. After a prolonged period of low prices at the beginning of the year, fish farmers reduced their stocking, and the shortage of fish reaching the required size remains unresolved, putting continued pressure on processing plants to procure fish.

The rebound in pond-side prices is restoring farmers' confidence in stocking tilapia, and sales at hatcheries are beginning to recover. A large tilapia supplier in Hainan revealed that sales in August were significantly better than in recent months. Based on the approximately six-month tilapia farming cycle from stocking to harvest, the recent increase in tilapia sales will not translate into an increase in raw material supply until around February 2027 at the earliest. For Chinese processing plants, the tight raw material situation is unlikely to ease significantly for the remainder of 2026.

Tight supply coupled with a contraction in US imports is occurring simultaneously. From January to June 2026, US imports of frozen tilapia fillets are estimated at approximately 78.6 million pounds, a decrease of nearly 16% year-on-year, the second lowest first-half level since records began in 2012, only higher than the same period in 2024. China accounts for the vast majority of these imports, and US buyers are highly sensitive to changes in Chinese raw material and replenishment costs. With Chinese supply expected to remain tight until early 2027, the slower import pace will thin the market buffer, and if replenishment costs continue to rise, the price transmission will be more significant.

Chinese exporters have more options than in previous years. The African market is absorbing more and more of China's tilapia production capacity, and in the first half of the year, the US market had fallen behind Mexico, China's sole export destination. This diversification of export destinations has alleviated the pressure on processing plants to fiercely compete for US orders given already squeezed profit margins.

Tariff issues continue to weigh on exports to the US. After the US imposed a 12.5% ​​Section 301 tariff on Chinese goods on July 24, many exporters reported that the implementation details were still unclear, and some companies questioned whether US orders at current price levels would still be profitable. Coupled with increased opportunities in other export markets, the incentive for processing plants to compete for US orders with low prices has further weakened.

US domestic inventories remain ample, and buyers continue to prioritize immediate demand, not extending their coverage period. Without a significant improvement in demand, it remains difficult for importers to pass on the significantly increased replenishment costs to the entire supply chain.

US Customs bills of lading data show that tilapia imports in July were still concentrated in a few large buyers. The Fishin' Company topped the list with approximately 3.8 million pounds of monthly imports, while High Liner Foods imported approximately 1.7 million pounds, both showing increases compared to June. In terms of cumulative imports for the year, The Fishin' Company remains in first place with approximately 25.4 million pounds.