Thaifex Series: Norwegian Mackerel Quotas Reduced By 50%, Thai Tuna Exports Decline, China Expands Into Southeast Asian Market

From May 26th to 30th, the Thailand International Food Exhibition (Thaifex) was held at the Bangkok Convention and Exhibition Centre. This year's exhibition attracted a record-breaking 3,590 exhibitors from 56 countries and regions, including 193 seafood companies.

 

The organizers stated that ready-to-eat foods were the most prominent product trend at this year's exhibition, accounting for 42% of all key product categories, higher than halal foods (41%) and private label products (33%). Frozen seafood, surimi products, and salmon products performed exceptionally well in the seafood sector.

 

UCN learned from the exhibition that an increasing number of Chinese seafood processing companies are turning their attention to overseas markets, particularly Southeast Asia.

 

A Bangkok seafood distributor stated, "This year, Chinese companies have a much stronger presence. The number of Chinese processing companies exhibiting has increased significantly, showcasing frozen seafood, seasoned seafood, and other value-added products. Chinese companies are noticeably more proactive in promoting their products and seeking new customers."

 

This trend of Chinese companies seeking opportunities in overseas markets is related to sluggish domestic demand in China, particularly weak B2B demand. Additionally, the government is encouraging companies to accelerate their "going global" efforts and explore more overseas markets.

 

An executive from a Dalian processing company stated that continuously rising raw material costs are squeezing profit margins for processing plants, with a particularly noticeable impact on processors reliant on imported whitefish and mackerel.

 

"Just thinking about what will happen with the new Atlantic mackerel season gives me a headache. That's why we're focusing on showcasing Pacific mackerel caught in China this year," he said. He added that with rising raw material prices, traditional procurement channels are becoming increasingly unsustainable, forcing processing companies to seek more alternatives.

Thailand's Tuna Exports Decline

According to data from the Thai Tuna Industry Association (TTIA), Thailand's canned tuna exports to major markets declined sharply in the first quarter of 2026, affected by factors such as uncertainty surrounding US tariffs, instability in the Middle East, and weakening global consumer purchasing power.

 

From January to March this year, Thailand exported a total of 125,500 tons of canned tuna, valued at US$551 million, representing year-on-year decreases of 11% and 8%, respectively. The United States remains Thailand's largest market, with exports to the US falling 22% year-on-year to 24,167 tons and value decreasing 19% to US$116 million. Affected by regional tensions, Thailand's exports to the Middle East decreased by 26% year-on-year to 21,130 tons and value decreased by 23% to US$87 million.

 

Several other markets performed relatively well. For example, exports to Latin America increased by 13% year-on-year, reaching 13,139 tons; export value increased by 17%, reaching US$54 million. Exports to Japan increased by 8% year-on-year, reaching 10,287 tons; export value increased by 9%, reaching US$54 million.

 

Amornphan Aramwattananont, head of the Thai Tuna Industry Association, stated that although Thailand faces competition from Ecuador, the South American market, including Chile and Peru, is becoming increasingly important. Additionally, India, with its approximately 1.5 billion population and relatively young demographic, represents a market with long-term growth potential.

Norwegian Seafood Exports to Southeast Asia Reach New Highs

Christian Chramer, CEO of the Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC), stated that Southeast Asia has become one of the fastest-growing markets for Norwegian seafood in recent years, driving Norwegian seafood exports to new historical highs.

 

In 2025, Norway's seafood exports to Southeast Asia reached NOK 10.7 billion (approximately USD 1.1 billion), a year-on-year increase of 11%; export volume increased by 1% to 174,000 tons. From January to April 2026, export volume decreased by 15% year-on-year to 45,000 tons, but driven by rising prices and resilient regional demand, export value increased by 7% year-on-year to NOK 3.5 billion.

 

Chramer stated that Thailand is transforming from a purely consumer market into a major processing and re-distribution center for Norwegian seafood in Southeast Asia. NSC is currently strengthening its promotional activities in the Thai market, focusing on young families and mass consumers.

 

From January to April 2026, Norway's seafood exports to Thailand reached THB 4.5 billion (approximately USD 138 million), a year-on-year increase of 8%. Among these, salmon and trout exports, including salmon and fjord trout, increased by 17% year-on-year to 11,511 tons; export value increased by 14%.

Norway's Mackerel Quota Slashed Sharply

Last week, the Norwegian Fisheries Agency confirmed that Norway's Atlantic mackerel quota for 2026 is 81,375 tons, a significant decrease of 51% year-on-year.

 

A Norwegian exporter stated, "If the weather is good and fishing conditions are ideal, the entire season could actually be completed in a single voyage. If the catch is concentrated on land within a short period, from unloading the raw materials to processing the finished products, domestic production in Norway could be completed within a week."

 

"No one knows where the auction price will ultimately stabilize, but with such a large reduction in the quota, upward pressure on prices is inevitable," another Norwegian company said.