Japan's Pacific Sardine Fishing Grounds Collapsed, With 24 Purse Seine Vessels Leaving With Zero Catch, And Fish Prices Soaring 257% in July.

Japan's Pacific sardine (Far Eastern sardine) fishery has suffered an unprecedented blow this summer. The expected summer fishing grounds in the waters east of Hokkaido failed to materialize, and all 24 large purse seiners that entered the area after the season began on June 16th withdrew with almost zero catches. Researchers at the Japan Fisheries Information Center (JAFIC) confirmed that the fleets found no commercially valuable fish and gradually withdrew from the region.

Eastern Hokkaido is typically Japan's largest summer sardine-producing region, and the disappearance of these fishing grounds has directly led to a sharp contraction in the national supply. JAFIC market data shows that the total amount of fresh Pacific sardines landed from January to July was 135,131 tons, a sharp drop of 65% year-on-year (387,739 tons in the same period last year); the amount landed in July alone was only 10,527 tons, a plunge of 85% year-on-year.

Data from major ports shows an even more severe picture. Kushiro, Japan's largest port for Pacific sardine arrivals in 2023 and 2024, saw zero fresh sardine arrivals in June and July this year-compared to 34,034 tons in the same period last year. Neighboring Hiroo Port, which saw over 16,000 tons arriving by July last year, also recorded zero this year. Further south, Choshi Port, a major port for sardine arrivals before the seasonal northward migration, saw a sharp 89% year-on-year drop in arrivals to 18,350 tons from January to July (compared to 161,016 tons in the same period last year). In contrast, Sakai Port on the Sea of ​​Japan side saw a 14% year-on-year increase in arrivals to 56,790 tons from January to July.

The Fisheries Research and Education Agency of Japan (FRA) predicted in its March long-term outlook for April to July that sardine abundance from the Boso Peninsula to eastern Hokkaido would be lower than the previous year, but still expected the eastern Hokkaido fishing grounds to form from June. The actual situation deviated far from expectations. The FRA revised its forecast in August, confirming that sardine abundance from the Boso Peninsula to the Sanriku coast would be significantly lower than the previous year, and whether eastern Hokkaido would become the main fishing ground this season remains uncertain. The agency warned that Pacific sardine resources have entered a weak phase.

The data supporting the resource decline is clear. The estimated replenishment for the 2023 age group is 33.2 billion sardines, compared to 94.3 billion for the strong 2022 age group; the preliminary spawning of the 2026 age group (as of June) is only 99 trillion spawns, compared to 697 trillion spawns in the same period last year. FRA researchers stated at an industry conference in Kushiro this week that Pacific sardine biomass has been declining since around 2023, and the condition of adult sardines has been deteriorating since 2018, potentially weakening their reproductive capacity. Abnormally low temperatures in the waters east of Hokkaido have also delayed the formation of fishing grounds this year.

JAFIC researchers proposed another hypothesis: the Kuroshio Current's serpentine course previously raised temperatures in the waters east of Hokkaido, causing sardines to migrate northwards to Russian waters for food. After the serpentine course ended and water temperatures returned to normal, foraging conditions may have worsened, leading to poorer fish condition and impacting reproduction. The researchers emphasized that this is only a working hypothesis and not yet a definitive explanation.

Supply shortages have already spread to downstream processing. Japanese seafood giant Umios announced a 15% to 30% price increase for 24 types of canned sardines starting September 1st, citing continuously rising raw material costs due to poor catches, pushing internal costs to their limit. Fishmeal producers in eastern Hokkaido are also under pressure-poor Peruvian anchovy catches have driven up international fishmeal prices, exacerbating operational difficulties despite strong demand expectations for the season. Processors in Choshi and Nagasaki have had to source mackerel from Japanese ports and purchase frozen sardines from western Japan to maintain operations.

Fishing pressures are also drawing attention. Data from the North Pacific Fisheries Commission shows that Japan's annual Pacific sardine catch is estimated at approximately 500,000 tons from 2023 to 2025. Russia's 2025 catch is expected to plummet from 590,000 tons the previous year to 57,000 tons. China's 2025 catch is projected to increase from 260,000 tons to 295,000 tons, making it the only major fishing nation to see growth. Russia's Pacific sardine catch, however, has also significantly lagged behind the previous year's progress.